Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations; and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application

The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP 2003) calls for the preparation of 21 synthesis and assessment products. Noting that “sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential for comparative analysis of how climate might change in the future, as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options,” the Plan includes Product 2.1, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application. This report presents the scenarios created in the scenario-development component of Product 2.1; the review of scenario methods is the subject of a separate report (CCSP 2007). The guidelines for the development of these scenarios are set forth in the Final Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 (CCSP 2005). Consistent with the Prospectus and the nature of the climate change issue, these scenarios were developed using long-term models of global energy-agriculture-land-use-economy systems coupled to models of global atmospheric composition and radiation.